MOV to Wins Calculator

Convert point differential into win-loss probabilities

Games Total MOV Actual Wins

▶ Adjust Prior (Advanced)

Expected W%

Correlation (ρ)

0 = independent games, 1 = fully correlated

▶ Visualize

Upload Games CSV

Team Start Date End Date

21.50

Expected Wins

21-22

Most Likely

0.3847%

P(MOV = 0)

—

P(Actual)

Show all

Record	MOV Distribution	P(MOV\|Record)	÷	P(MOV)	=	Bayes Factor	×	Prior	=	P(Record\|MOV)